Nigeria, China, India, 29 others face extreme climate risk – Study

If the Federal Government expects the Boko Haram insurgency to fizzle out soon, latest study by U.K. based leading global risk analytics and forecasting company, Maplecroft, says it is likely to intensify in Nigeria.

As if that is not enough cause for concern, the study shows that drought, famine and crop failures could destabilise 32 countries in Africa and Asia, including China and India, the world’s most populous nations; Nigeria, Chad- its neighbour on the Borno axis, as well as Haiti, Ethiopia, the Philippines, the Central African Republic and Eritrea rounded out 10 would most likely to be adversely affected by extreme climate change.

Other nations listed as being at extreme climate risk include Asia’s India, one of the world’s most populous nations, Pakistan and Guatemala.

In its latest Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas, the study equally listed Bangladesh, Nigeria, India, Myanmar, Philippines among the most vulnerable, while China, India, Nigeria and Kenya are “high” risk.

In total Maplecroft estimates nearly two billion people face increasingly tough prospects due to rising global temperatures.

“Widespread drought and food insecurity helped create the socio-economic conditions that led to the emergence of Boko Haram and the violent insurgency in the North East of the country,” write the authors.

“Food insecurity and food price volatility have also been identified as triggers to the Arab Spring – particularly in Egypt and the current Syrian conflict,” the risk analyst firm Maplecroft has warned.

In particular, Maplecroft said 11 of these nations- South Sudan, Sierra Leone, Chad, Ethiopia, Haiti, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Burundi and Afghanistan — faced extreme risk from both climate change and food insecurity.

The study also showed that the 32 countries of the 196 surveyed face some level of threat, which could increase the chances of civil conflict.

A common feature of the threatened nations is that they depend heavily on agriculture, which accounts for 28 percent of their combined economic output relying on farm-related revenue. Also, 65 percent of the working population employed in the sector, according to Maplecroft, which noted that the climate risk, combined with food insecurity would act as “threat multipliers,” escalating the danger of civil conflict, it said.

Bloomberg quoted James Allan, head of environment at Maplecroft, as saying in a statement that “global business and the military now view climate change as an important risk management imperative. Identifying future flashpoints will help proactive organisations and governments make strategic decisions.”

Other countries deemed at acute risk include the three West African countries hit by outbreaks of ebola: Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.

 A lack of coordinated governance and security concerns in this region is a “key driver of the region’s increasing vulnerability to climate change.

“The agricultural sector in Southern and South-eastern Asia in particular is likely to be significantly affected by climate change,” it says.

“These regions are expected to experience respective drops in labour capacity of seven per cent and 16 per cent by 2045 due to future increases in heat stress, threatening economic output and productivity from the agricultural sector.”

IPCC scientists and government officials are meeting this week in Copenhagen to discuss the UN panel’s flagship “synthesis” study.

The final document, according to Responding to Climate Change (rtcc.org), which is expected November 2, is likely to warn that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”.

Already, the U.S. military said last month that rising sea levels and temperatures would change the way it operates around the world, just as NATO military alliance said in its September global warming, water scarcity and energy demand would “shape the future security environment” for its 28 member states.

“Unlike policy makers who often ignore or politicise the science in seeking short-term objectives, global business and the military now view climate change as an important risk management imperative,” said Dr James Allan, head of environment at Maplecroft.

“Identifying future flashpoints will help proactive organisations and governments make strategic decisions.”

See more: Daily Independent